0
0
Skymet Weather Services, a personal meteorology company, in an updated forecast on Monday said that there’s a 60% chance of ‘below normal’ rains during monsoon at around 94% of the long period average (LPA) with a mistake margin of 4%.
In April, Skymet Weather had forecast that monsoon is probably going to be ‘normal’ or ’above normal’ for the third consecutive year and monsoon rain from June to September is probably going to be 103% of the long period average of 880.6 mm.
The monsoon this year had a timely onset and made an honest start with June ending above normal at 110% of the long period average (LPA). July, however, was marred with a pronged break till July 11. Therefore, the month finished with below normal rainfall at 93% of LPA.
June and July ended with 110% and 93% of LPA against Skymet’s forecast of 106% and 97%, respectively. There was a ‘break monsoon’ phase during the primary fortnight of August, resulting in a monsoon deficiency of 9% till the center of the month.
“In terms of geographical risk, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha, Kerala and northeast India are likely to be hit with deficient rains. the prospect of drought over Gujarat and West Rajasthan appears imminent. However, the spatial distribution of rainfall over the rainfed areas of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh has been adequate. Accordingly, the food production within the agri-bowl of central parts might not be stressed and skewed,” Skymet Weather said during a statement on Monday.
There is a 9% rain deficiency over the country with Gujarat recording 47% deficiency, Odisha 31%, Kerala 28%, Manipur 58%, Arunachal Pradesh 25%, Assam 20% and Nagaland 23%. Sub-division wise, northwest India has registered a 11% deficiency, central India 11% deficiency, Malay Archipelago 11% deficiency and northeast India 4% surplus.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its long range forecast issued on June 1, projected that monsoon rainfall over the country as an entire is presumably to be normal (96 to 104 you look after Long Period Average (LPA)). Quantitatively, the monsoon season over the country as an entire is probably going to be 101% of the LPA with a model error of ± 4%. IMD officials said monsoon seasonal rainfall could also be on the brink of normal.
“As of now, August rainfall is probably going to be below normal. There could also be some rain towards the top of August but we don’t expect the deficit to be met. The models are indicating normal rains in September. Overall monsoon could also be near normal or slightly below normal,” DS Pai, head of climate and research services at IMD Pune, said.
Normally, the monsoon trough comes right down to the plains when low systems develop over the Bay of Bengal. “This time, fewer low-pressure areas formed — two against the traditional of 4 — and that they weren’t that active. They moved towards Uttar Pradesh and weakened abruptly. This led to breaks during monsoon and fewer rain overall. The monsoon trough shifted northwards,” Pai explained.
IMD considers 96 to 104% of LPA to be ‘normal’, 90 to 96% in ‘below normal’ category and fewer than 90% in ‘deficient’ category.
